NEW YORK (Reuters) – Hedge fund firm Pine River, which makes big bets on housing, is bracing for a double dip in that market, its chief executive officer said on Tuesday.

“There are still issues in the housing markets and it would not surprise us to see the recovery turn down,” Brian Taylor, who founded the $1.6 billion hedge fund eight years ago, said at the Reuters Private Equity and Hedge Funds Summit in New York.

For Pine River, where Taylor and his seven partners work to identify relative value mispricings ahead of the curve, both a full-fledged recovery or a double-dip recession would provide a chance to make money for clients, Taylor said. “There is opportunity to profit either way.”

Last year, Pine River gained about 90 percent, far more than the average hedge fund’s roughly 20 percent return.

As Taylor sees it, the market for residential mortgage-backed securities turned from dull to exciting virtually overnight during the financial crisis, leaving his team with large opportunities that few others seek now.

“The amount of risk has never been greater,” he said. “Armageddon was avoided in late 2008 and 2009,” but the housing finance market is still awful, he said, with millions of homeowners sitting on liabilities that exceed their assets.

“Today there are still pockets of undervaluation left over from 2008,” Taylor said.

Additionally Pine River is benefiting from a lack of competition thanks to the retreat of government-controlled mortgage buyers Freddie Mac (FRE.N) and Fannie Mae (FNM.N) from relative value investing in the RMBS market.

(Reporting by Svea Herbst-Bayliss. Editing by Robert MacMillan)

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NEW YORK (Reuters) – Home buyers in much of the United States paid thousands of dollars below asking prices in December and for the first time in 11 months gained negotiating power, real estate website Zillow.com said on Tuesday.

According to December Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, buyers paid 2.7 percent less, or a median of $5,618 below the listing price on homes bought in December, up from $5,538, or 2.6 percent, for homes bought in November.

The gain, however, was still far less than December 2008 when buyers bargained a median 4.5 percent, or $10,018, off the last listing price, Zillow said.

The data is calculated by comparing the last listing price of individual homes and the final sale price.

November had marked the 10th consecutive month discounts shrunk, meaning buyers were negotiating less and less off the final asking price each month.

More buyer negotiating power tends to put downward pressure on overall home prices and may push more mortgages “underwater.” This negative equity has been one of the biggest banes of homeowners, making many unqualified for home loan refinancing and preventing some from selling.

Borrowers in negative equity, meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth, are more prone to defaults and foreclosures.

Buyers’ negotiating power peaked in January of 2009 when buyers were paying 4.5 percent off the asking price, a median of $10,178, Zillow said.

In December, 20.5 percent of the listings on Zillow had a price cut, unchanged versus November. In December 2008, 32.3 percent of listings had a price cut.

In some markets, buyers continued to negotiate large discounts.

Vero Beach, Florida, once again topped the list in December. Buyers in the metropolitan statistical area, or MSA, were again most firmly in the driver’s seat and negotiated 8.8 percent off the last listing price — a median discount of $20,214.

In many markets in California, sellers continued to be in the driver’s seat, and homes often sold for more than asking price. Many of these markets were among the hardest-hit in the country by the housing downturn, and foreclosure re-sales have made up more than 50 percent of all home sales in some areas.

Listing prices across the nation showed a slight increase December, with the median price of homes listed on Zillow at $209,900. That marks a 0.4 percent increase since November, but a decrease of 6.7 percent since December 2009, the reports showed.

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) — Sales of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in December, capping the worst year on record and signaling the government’s tax-credit extension has yet to shore up demand.

Purchases declined 7.6 percent to an annual pace of 342,000, marking the fourth decrease in the past five months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. For all of 2009, sales declined 23 percent to 374,000, the lowest level since records began in 1963.

The falloff following the expected expiration of an $8,000 incentive for first-time buyers indicates the market remains dependent on government assistance. A setback in housing, combined with a jobless rate projected to average 10 percent this year and record foreclosures that will push up supply, may pressure home prices and builder profits for much of 2010.

“It’s going to be a long slog for housing,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a New York forecasting firm. “We will see a decline in home prices and there is still a lot of shadow inventory out there that we need to get through.”

Federal Reserve policy makers today retained a pledge to phase out programs aimed at keeping mortgage rates low, bringing an end to another form of government help.

Mortgage Rates

The end of the $1.25 trillion program of mortgage-debt purchases by the central bank on March 31 raises the risk that borrowing costs will jump. The plan helped send the rate on a 30-year fixed loan down to 4.71 percent in early December, the lowest level in Freddie Mac data going back to 1972.

The Fed “will probably stop the purchases and see how things go,” said Shapiro. “If rates shoot up, then they will probably be back in the game.”

Stocks rose after the Fed also pledged to keep interest rates lot to sustain the expansion. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.5 percent to close at 1,097.5. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilder Index climbed 1 percent.

The government tax credit to first-time buyers was originally due to expire on Nov. 30, which probably caused demand to swell in prior months, economists said. The Obama administration and Congress extended the credit to cover closings through June 30, and expanded it to include some current owners.

Weather Effect

Bad weather may have also played a role in depressing December new-home sales, economists said. Last month was the 14th coldest December and 11th wettest in 115 years of record keeping, according to the National Climatic Data Center, in Asheville, North Carolina.

“December was a pretty cold month and that probably hurt shopping for homes,” said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Winter housing data is notoriously volatile.”

The median price of a new house decreased 3.6 percent from December 2008, to $221,300, today’s report from the Commerce Department showed.

Fed Action

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and fellow central bankers said today they will keep the target rate for overnight bank lending near zero for an “extended period.” Bernanke is also battling to win support from senators considering his nomination to a second term as Fed leader.

Sales of existing homes plunged 17 percent in December, the month after the credit was to end. The decline was the biggest since records began in 1968, the National Association of Realtors said two days ago. For all of 2009, existing home sales rose 4.9 percent to 5.16 million, the first gain in four years.

New-home purchases, while accounting for less than 10 percent of the market, are considered a leading indicator because they are based on contract signings. Sales of previously owned homes, which make up the remainder, are compiled from closings and reflect contracts signed weeks or months earlier.

Rising foreclosures and joblessness near a 26-year high will weigh on any housing recovery. A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to make mortgage payments or sell, according to a RealtyTrac Inc. forecast on Jan. 14. That compares with 2.82 million foreclosures last year.

Lower prices, while supporting demand, are hurting builders’ earnings. Record foreclosures have depressed the value of the previously owned homes that compete with new houses, prompting construction firms to also lower prices.

Lennar Corp., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, reported a 29 percent decline in revenue in the quarter ended Nov. 30 even as profits rose due a tax benefit and cost cuts, the company said Jan. 7.

Businessweek

As the temperature drops and the snow piles up, it’s easy to forget that spring is quickly approaching. And after more than three years of a painful housing swoon, real estate experts predict that lower prices, attractive mortgage rates, and a tax perk from Uncle Sam will create the most vibrant spring home selling season in some time. “This is going to be probably the most pleasant experience for a home seller in the last four or five years,” says Mike Larson of Weiss Research. “If you have been beating your head against a wall, this is going to feel a lot better.” But even if the market does perk up, buyers are likely to retain the upper hand throughout 2010. So to help property owners get the best selling price they can–without burying themselves in expenses–U.S. News has created a list of 10 cheap ways to boost a home’s sales price by spring:

1. Retouch the front shell

If your property’s exterior isn’t appealing, no one will want to see your newly remodeled kitchen. So property sellers must first ensure that their home projects a cozy, inviting feeling. “The shell–the outside front–is probably the most important area for improvement, the area where you can make the biggest improvement with the smallest amount of cash,” says Pat Lashinsky, the president and CEO of ZipRealty. Touching up the paint on the front-entry portion of the house can be an inexpensive but effective way to make the entire property more inviting, Lashinsky says. “Really focus on that outside, external shell,” he says. “You would be amazed by the amount of people that drive by a house and say, ‘Ah, that’s not for me.’ And they can tell just by the way the upkeep and the outside looks.

2. Trim the greenery

Ensuring that the lawn, hedges, and flowers are well maintained helps make your home more alluring to prospective buyers as well. Property owners can hire professional landscapers or break out the lawn mower and get busy themselves. “Many people have landscaping that is overgrown and too heavy, and it is concealing a lot of the house,” says Paul Zuch, the president of Capital Improvements. “Trim the trees, trim the hedges … [and] add a little color to the flower beds.”

3. Paint the interior

Putting a fresh coat of paint on the home’s interior is a cost-effective way for sellers to make their home more appealing to buyers, says Ron Phipps, a broker with Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I. But when choosing the color, homeowners should be conservative. “The caution is that your favorite color may not be the favorite color of the buyer.” Instead, homeowners are best off using neutral colors, Phipps says. “Go with something that is a very light yellow or a light cream with a contrasting white, so it just looks very fresh and crisp . … Having the paint in good condition is almost more important than the color.”

4. Don’t forget the floors

Improving the condition of a home’s flooring is also a smart move for sellers–and you don’t need to refinish wood floors or install new carpets to make them more attractive. “If it’s a hardwood [floor], has the floor been buffed?” says David Lupberger, a home improvement expert with ServiceMagic.com. “If you have carpets, have the carpets been cleaned?”

5. Make all major repairs

Because tighter lending standards demand higher down payments, today’s home buyers won’t have much cash left over for improvements once they’ve made their purchase. So it’s imperative for sellers to make all major home repairs–fixing the leaky roof, rebuilding the front stoop–before they put the property on the market. “Repairs can’t be ignored, because nobody has any extra money,” Phipps says. To determine what needs to be done, property owners can scrutinize their homes themselves or bring in a home inspector to examine the property professionally. “The home inspection piece I think is something that is a huge value, particularly if there is something that is a question,” Phipps says.

6. Put appliances under warranty

To give buyers more confidence in a home’s appliances, Phipps recommends that sellers put them under warranty. Sellers can buy home warranties–which cover repair and replacement costs for many home appliances–from several different firms. “If I have got a 40- or 50-year-old house, it is going to be harder for me to persuade a first-time home buyer with a limited amount of cash to buy it because they will say, ‘Well, what happens if something breaks down?’ ” Phipps says. “If I have a home warranty … that solves that problem.”

7. Make energy-efficient home improvements

Increasing your home’s energy efficiency is another good way to make your property more attractive to buyers. Many such improvements–such as new windows or better insulation–come with federal tax benefits. In addition, a growing awareness of human impact on the environment means homes that have these upgrades will stand out from other listings. “If you have some cruddy old windows that are leaky and just not energy efficient, you can put in new replacement windows and take advantage of the tax credit,” Zuch says. “It’s not green washing. Those are really practical things that make your house more sellable.” Many contractors will conduct a so-called energy audit free of charge to determine where efficiencies can be created, Zuch says. “If your house is more energy efficient-you use less energy, it’s better insulated-it is going to be more desirable for a potential buyer,” he says.

8. New light fixtures

Replacing old or broken light fixtures with new ones can also be a low-cost way to add value, Lupberger says. Installing a nice new light fixture in the foyer near the home’s entrance can be a particular benefit, he said, because it can make a strong first impression on would-be buyers. Creating an inviting feeling in the interior entryway, in turn, helps get home shoppers more interested in checking out the rest of the property. “I am not going to redo the house,” Lupberger says. “But I can update those features so that somebody can walk in and say, ‘You know what? [the homeowners] took care of this.’”

9. New stove in the kitchen

While some homeowners might think the only way to jazz up a dated kitchen is a full-on remodeling job, Lashinsky recommends a much less costly alternative: buying a new stove. “If there is an updated stove in the kitchen, it is amazing how that draws people in, and people say, ‘Wow, this kitchen is going to be great,’ ” Lashinsky says. While upscale homeowners may have to shell out for top-of-the-line appliances to maintain their kitchen’s décor, others can budget well under $1,000 for the upgrade. “You can get a really nice stove for $700 or $800,” Lashinsky says. “You can basically have the look of a new kitchen that is going to be really enticing to someone-and what you are really trying to do is differentiate your house from somebody else’s.”

Property owners in neighborhoods where most homes have granite countertops can consider making this upgrade as well. But Lupberger says the project makes sense only for homeowners with extremely dated kitchens that are going to serve as a serious impediment to finding a buyer. A real estate agent with experience in the local market can help you determine whether or not the upgrade is essential, he says.

10. Freshen up the bathrooms

Getting rid of mildew stains on the bathroom caulking can boost a home’s appeal as well. Such stains “scream, ‘These people haven’t taken care of this house. It’s going to be a money pit,’ ” Zuch says. Use a razor blade to remove the old caulk, and replace it with new, mildew-resistant caulk, Zuch says. And rather than remodeling the entire space, homeowners can reinvigorate a worn-down bathroom by replacing cracked sinks, Lupberger says.

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